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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising together. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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